Economy
Several pieces of data were released for the US on Thursday. US durable goods orders growth slowed from 0.2% to 0.1% in May, beating expectations of a 0.5% contraction. However other components of the report disappointed consensus estimates. Durable goods…
Mexico has gone from investor darling to massive underperformer within the EM space in the past month. In the eyes of our Emerging Markets Strategy team, the near-term outlook for Mexican risk assets remains poor in absolute terms, but the long-term view is…
Right after the pandemic, many US homeowners locked in mortgages at extremely low rates. When interest rates rose, these homeowners refused to sell, as moving to a new home would result in an interest rate reset. In turn this resulted in a severe housing…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent China’s exponential credit growth, China’s trend growth rate will fall to 4 percent and the world’s trend growth rate will fall to sub-3 percent. This will impede structural rallies in the Chinese stock…
The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession.
Australia’s inflation for May was released on Tuesday. Annual headline CPI increased from 3.6% in April to 4%, outpacing expectations of 3.8%. Trimmed-mean inflation also increased from 4.1% to 4.4%. Individual components diverged. Food and non-alcoholic…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the BJP's loss of majority in India’s parliament could be a blessing in disguise for India. The new BJP-led coalition with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will largely continue the structural…
Our Global Investment Strategy team often highlights the job openings-to-unemployed ratio as a gauge of the labor market’s slack. This indicator climbed to over 2 job openings per unemployed person in 2022, as labor shortages plagued the US economy due to…
The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural outperformer. Plus: copper is correcting, NVDA is consolidating.
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Canada’s headline inflation rate for May surprised to the upside on Tuesday. The 0.6% month-on-month print and 2.9% year-on-year increase came in above expectations of 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, respectively. Both…