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Economic Growth

Unwinding
The September update of the J.P.Morgan Global Services PMI inched down from 51.1 to 50.8 in September. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline and brings the headline index to its lowest level since January. The New Business and New Export Business…
Daily Insights
Run A Barbelled Treasury Portfolio
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends a barbelled allocation across the Treasury curve. The Treasury curve bear-steepened in September. The 2-year/10-year Treasury slope steepened 32 bps on the month and currently sits at -43 bps. The…
Daily Insights
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Bond Meltdown, Republican Meltdown

There is a connection between the bond market meltdown and Republican Party’s meltdown. Investors should expect more short-term financial market volatility as a result of the triple whammy of high bond yields, high oil prices, and a strong dollar.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise In August
The US JOLTS report sent a chill through financial markets on Tuesday. The bigger-than-expected number of job openings in August fueled investors’ concern that the Fed will be forced to maintain a hawkish stance for longer. Indeed, the number of job…
Daily Insights
Mediterranean Bloc: From Foreign Borrowers To Surplus Nations
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Mediterranean bloc’s move from current account deficit to current account surplus nations greatly limits the risk of a new sovereign debt crisis. A combination of reforms, fiscal rigor,…
Daily Insights
Mixed Signals From Chinese PMIs
The Caixin and NBS PMIs sent mixed signals about Chinese economic conditions in September. The NBS results surprised to the upside on the back of slightly greater-than-anticipated increases in both the manufacturing (+0.5 to 50.2) and non-manufacturing…
Daily Insights
Global Manufacturing: Somes Signs Of Stabilization
The Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up by a marginal 0.1 point to 49.1 in September, indicating that manufacturing activity deteriorated at a slightly slower pace than in August. However, several of the details of the report were more optimistic. In…
Daily Insights
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: The Vice Tightens Further

Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven investment with carry.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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The "Higher For Longer" Troika: Rates, Dollar And Energy

Downside risks to equities are building. Rates, the dollar, and energy prices will remain elevated into yearend. This trifecta makes a soft landing less likely than before and hurts corporate profits and multiples. However, high cash balances may offer downside protection against a sharp correction.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
The Consumption Normalization Has Stalled
The consumption rotation from goods to services has been one of the drivers of the global manufacturing downturn. Demand for durable goods normalized after the pandemic binge. Meanwhile, consumption of services benefitted from pent-up demand as the Covid…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics