Economic Growth
Banks were thrust back in the spotlight’s unflattering glare last week when mid-cap regional New York Community Bank shocked analysts and shareholders with an enormous credit loss. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, NYCB is sui…
Although our base case remains that a continuation of the disinflation process will allow policymakers to pivot to rate cuts this year, we continue to monitor risks to this outlook. On this front, some key indicators have recently moved in the wrong…
German factory orders delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday, unexpectedly increasing on both a monthly and annual basis. The 8.9% m/m increase in December came in well above consensus estimates of a 0.2% m/m decline. This translated to a 2.7% y/y rise,…
Indonesia will not revert to dictatorship. Yet the guardrails against authoritarianism are also constraining the actions of the next government in tackling near term domestic and regional challenges. For long-term positioning, use potential selloff from a “dictatorship scare” to build position as structural outlook for Indonesia is positive due to the China-West divorce and the global energy transition.
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) continues to show the impact of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Banks were still tightening lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), home equity…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ views on tech stocks, the US economy in 2024, and China’s contribution to global growth. Regarding tech stocks, 44% of respondents believe the rally as…
After falling throughout most of the second half of 2023, the US economic surprise index has surged over the past few weeks, indicating that economic conditions are firm at the start of the year. Indeed, Manufacturing PMIs delivered a positive signal last…
Given the huge disparities in wage inflation between the US, euro area and UK, it is remarkable that the markets are pricing near-identical rate cuts from the Fed, ECB, and BoE of around 150 bps through 2024. Assuming central banks don’t behave recklessly –…
When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.
The strong H2/2023 rally in global credit markets can be attributed to lower global inflation and the associated reduction in global interest rate volatility. However, our colleagues at BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service argue that credit…