Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Economic Growth

Deflationary Pressures In China
China’s CPI and PPI inflation updates indicate that deflationary pressures continue to dominate the domestic economy in June. Producer prices declined at a faster pace than in the prior month, falling by -5.4% y/y following a -4.6% y/y decrease in May, and…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Investors Are (More) Pessimistic
On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix sent a pessimistic signal about investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. The headline index dropped from -17.0 to -22.5 in July, significantly below expectations of a more muted deterioration to -17.9. Both the Expectations…
Daily Insights
Are Investors Long Or Short The US Dollar?
Investors’ positioning in the USD is not homogenous: they are short some currencies but long others versus the greenback. Market commentators often refer to the US dollar. They implicitly mean the US currency is moving in the same direction against all (or…
Daily Insights
Third Quarter US Political Outlook 2023

Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that investors should buy insurance while it is cheap.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Winners Among Chinese Industrial Sectors
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, although the recovery in overall Chinese industrial profits will be subdued, there will be a silver lining among China’s consumer goods producers, autos and utilities. Corporate earnings in…
Daily Insights
ISM Signals Further Downward Pressure On Goods Inflation
The ISM PMI sent a pessimistic signal about US manufacturing conditions in June. The headline index dropped 0.9 points to a 3-year low of 46.0 – it eighth consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust line. This is consistent with the S&P Global PMI which fell…
Daily Insights
Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: The W-Shaped Bear Market

Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
China Is Entering A Liquidity Trap
In a recently published report, our China Investment Strategy team revisited the issue of a liquidity trap in China. A liquidity trap is a condition that occurs when lower borrowing costs are unable to boost credit demand and economic growth, i.e., when low…
Daily Insights
Hot Growth, Cold Prices
Our US Bond Strategy service responds to recent data releases which showed that real economic growth and the labor market are surprisingly resilient, while inflation pressures continued to decline. The 10-year Treasury yield broke above its top-end trading…
Daily Insights
A Macro Playbook For Asset Allocators
Special Report

We build a four-stage business cycle framework based on economic growth and capacity utilization, and then analyze historical returns for most major asset allocation decisions for each stage. Given that we are in the early recession stage (negative growth coupled and an overheated economy), our framework recommends a defensive positioning across all asset classes.

Global Asset Allocation by Felix Vezina-Poirier

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics