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Developed Countries

Not Much In The Minutes, Wait For Payrolls And CPI
The minutes from the June FOMC meeting didn’t reveal anything that wasn’t already known. They did explicitly say that “some” participants would have preferred a 25 basis point rate hike instead of a pause at the last meeting, but this was already evident from…
Daily Insights
On Resilient Services Versus Weak Manufacturing
In the past we have highlighted a dichotomy in the global economy characterized by weak manufacturing conditions versus a robust service sector. As goods spending normalized from the pandemic binge, consumption of services recovered following the removal of…
Daily Insights
Will The Equity Rally Be Sustained?
Seven of the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors are in the green on a year-to-date basis, led by those that benefitted from the AI frenzy: Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. In fact, the Industrials sector has recouped all…
Daily Insights
Overweight The Durable Goods Industry And Residential REITs
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, residential REITs, homebuilders, and durable goods manufacturers are the beneficiaries of the negative supply shock in residential housing. Shortage of inventories of existing houses means that buying…
Daily Insights
World Economy Already In Recession

The world economy is likely already in recession, defined as world growth dipping to sub-2 percent. So far, the world recession has been China-led, but in the coming months it will change to being developed economy-led. Hence, while metals and industrial commodities may get some brief respite, high yield credit and stocks will underperform government bonds. New tactical recommendations are to overweight French luxury goods versus US tech, and to overweight USD/COP.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Global Manufacturing PMI Deteriorates Further
The Global Manufacturing PMI’s 0.8-point decline to a six-month low of 48.8 in June indicates that manufacturing conditions deteriorated at the end of Q2. The forward-looking New Orders and New Export Orders components both fell deeper in contraction…
Daily Insights
ISM Signals Further Downward Pressure On Goods Inflation
The ISM PMI sent a pessimistic signal about US manufacturing conditions in June. The headline index dropped 0.9 points to a 3-year low of 46.0 – it eighth consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust line. This is consistent with the S&P Global PMI which fell…
Daily Insights
June In Review
The performance of financial markets continued to improve in June, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns. The US equity rally – which had been narrowly concentrated among tech stocks for most of the year –…
Daily Insights
Preparing For The Bear's Return

Our recession indicator turned red in late December. Though it has informed our 12-month caution, we are sticking with our tactical equity overweight as we expect that the lagged effects of pandemic fiscal largesse may extend the lag between Fed rate hikes and palpable economic slowing.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: The W-Shaped Bear Market

Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans

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