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Developed Countries

Fed’s Waller Signals Pause
In a Tuesday morning television interview, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled that the Fed will not lift rates when it meets later this month. Specifically, Waller echoed language used by Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole conference by saying that recent…
Daily Insights
Sector Chartpack: The State Of The American Consumer

The resiliency of consumers through 2023 has surprised investors. However, consumer strength will fade into yearend as factors supporting growth in income and spending are waning. i.e., job gains are slowing, wage growth is decelerating, and excess savings are running out. Consumers are starting to feel the pressure from tighter monetary policy as financial obligations rise. Hence, as consumer spending decelerates, economic growth will slow into yearend. We confirm our underweight of the Consumer Discretionary sector.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Goldilocks?
Friday’s US employment report suggests that the softening of the labor market is continuing at a steady pace. Although nonfarm payroll employment in June and July was revised down by 110 thousand, the 187 thousand increase in August came in above expectations…
Daily Insights
A New Currency Regime?
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service much of the new BRICS+ countries lack the fundamental basis of making a credible monetary union. A reserve currency needs the military might to control the trading routes necessary to maintain…
Daily Insights
More Evidence For The Soft Landing

US bond investment takeaways from this week’s PCE and employment releases.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Monthly Portfolio Update: Recession Postponed – But Not Avoided

A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter monetary policy is slowly being felt. Government bonds look increasingly attractive as a safe haven.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Resilient US Consumption, Moderating Inflation
The US Personal Income and Outlays report shows consumption remained resilient in July. Although personal income growth decelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.2% m/m, spending accelerated from an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m to 0.8% m/m – above expectations of 0.7% m/m.…
Daily Insights
On Eurozone Inflationary Pressures
Eurozone headline inflation surprised to the upside in August, confirming the signal from the preliminary German and Spanish releases. The year-on-year gauge was unchanged at 5.3% – surprising expectations of a deceleration to 5.1%. Similarly, the 0.6%…
Daily Insights
French Luxuries Trump US Technology
The stock market’s pre-eminent growth sector is not US technology, it is French luxury goods. On most time horizons over the past decades, French luxuries have trumped US technology on profit growth, price performance and total return performance. The…
Daily Insights
A Pyrrhic Victory?
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, current monetary policy settings at the Fed and ECB risk pushing commodity and energy prices lower. Lower prices and higher rates will suppress capex and set the stage for higher inflation…
Daily Insights

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