Developed Countries
This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas.
The US CPI report shows inflation was higher than anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m, it is above expectations of 0.3% m/m. The annual rate of change remains at 3.7% y/y – also above consensus estimates…
As expected, the UK economy bounced back in August with GDP expanding by 0.2% m/m following a 0.6% m/m decline in July. Yet to the extent that this improvement largely reflects a rebound after strikes weighed down on activity in the prior month, the growth…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that has preceded several turning-points in the last few years. This suggests a two-thirds probability of a…
Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report.
The US PPI report came in hotter-than-anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.7% m/m to 0.5% m/m, it remains above expectations of a more pronounced moderation to 0.3% m/m. In particular, a 3.3% m/m increase in energy prices…
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and emphasized that they remain…
The Q3 earnings season will shift into high gear this Friday as banks report their financial results for the quarter. Among the trends that we’ll be watching for is insight on the outlook for profit margins. As our US Investment strategists recently…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European automobile and components stocks will suffer over the coming years. The European automobile and components equity sector is cheap, trading at a modest 5.4 times forward earnings or…
The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent structural investment assuming central banks choose to slay inflation and the cost is a near-term recession. We discuss how to time and how to play the potential rebound.