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Developed Countries

US Economy Delivers Strong Growth In Q3
The US Q3 GDP release delivered a positive signal about the US economy. Economic growth accelerated from 2.1% q/q to 4.9% q/q on an annualized basis – beating expectations of 4.5%. A significant acceleration in consumption growth (from 0.8% to 4.0%) accounted…
Daily Insights
Has The ECB Reached The Pinnacle?
As expected, the ECB kept policy on hold on Thursday. In a unanimous decision, it maintained the deposit rate at an all-time high of 4% following 10 consecutive increases. Ultimately, the tone of the communication was on the dovish side. True, the ECB…
Daily Insights
Luxury Top-End Still Holding Up
Although luxury goods producers are facing headwinds, the top end is still holding up well. Hermes, which represents the top-end of the luxury sector, reported a 16% increase in sales in the third quarter, of which half came from higher prices of its…
Daily Insights
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US – OPEC 2.0 Price Collar: $79/bbl Floor, $130/bbl Cap

The US and core OPEC 2.0 are – wittingly or not – laying the groundwork for a price band with a floor and cap on oil prices – at $79/bbl and $130/bbl, respectively – “at least” to May 2024. This accommodates multiple goals for both. To meaningfully support policy, the US would need to scale up purchases to refill its SPR. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs for direct exposure to energy E+P equities and commodities.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
German Business Sentiment Inches Up In October
Results of the October German IFO survey corroborate the positive signal from the latest ZEW survey. The headline Business Climate Index increased for the first time since April, rising from 85.8 to 86.9, above expectations of 86.0. This was driven by…
Daily Insights
A Hawkish Pause From The Bank Of Canada
As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 5% for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. The Bank cited clear evidence of the impact of elevated interest rates on demand — especially in durable and semi-durable…
Daily Insights
Soaring Mortgage Rate Weighs On US Housing Affordability
The Atlanta Fed's Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households' ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – dropped to a fresh record low in August. At 67.3, the index is significantly below…
Daily Insights
Geopolitical Risks Provide A Tailwind For Gold
The price of gold has rallied by 9.2% since October 5, reaching a 5-month high by Wednesday's close. Notably, this latest rally comes despite real bond yields having been trending higher for the past two weeks. Given that higher bond yields typically weigh…
Daily Insights
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Short-Term Risks, Long-Term Value

This week’s report contains an update on the Treasury curve’s recent bear-steepening trend and a look at different measures of long-maturity Treasury valuation.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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BCA Global Central Bank Monitors: Applications To Fixed Income & FX Investing

In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can also help substantially minimize the drawdowns on a standard FX carry strategy.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper, Deborah Acri, Artem Sakhbiev

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