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Developed Countries

Killing Wage Inflation Is Unlikely To Be Immaculate
The best leading indicator for post-pandemic US wage inflation is the ratio of job vacancies to ‘bad’ unemployment (V/U), where bad unemployment refers to ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’. This ratio has already declined from 6.4 to 4.1 and wage…
Daily Insights
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Rate Cuts Are Still Coming

We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Wage Disinflation Intact
The Atlanta Fed’s US Wage Growth Tracker stalled at 5.2% in December, unchanged from November. Notably, after falling from a peak of 7.1% in June 2022, this indicator has stabilized at still-elevated levels in recent months. This dynamic raises the question…
Daily Insights
Will US Shale Oil Output Continue To Surge?
Crude oil prices weakened following the release of the US EIA’s weekly report on Wednesday, reversing gains earlier in the session and ultimately ending the day lower. The data release showed commercial crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 1.3 million…
Daily Insights
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The 4 Key Indicators Of The US Jobs Market Challenge The Immaculate Disinflationists

The Fed faces a dilemma. Cut rates early to avoid a recession, but at the risk of not slaying wage inflation. Or, not cut rates early to ensure that wage inflation is slayed, but at the risk of a downturn. Faced with such a dilemma, the lesser evil is to slay wage inflation even at the risk of a downturn. Meaning that the market has overpriced early rate cuts. We discuss some other investment implications, and identify two rebound candidates.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US Small Business Owners Remain Pessimistic
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index delivered a slight positive surprise on Tuesday. The index rose 1.3 points to a five-month high of 91.9 in December and beat consensus expectations of 91.0. However, the contents of the report were more mixed. On the…
Daily Insights
The Signal From US Equity Valuations And Technicals
The Santa Claus rally started in late October lifting the S&P 500 by 15.8%. However, there are signs that the rally is getting tired. Consider the following: The S&P 500 has been trading at around 4,750 since the middle of December. …
Daily Insights
S&P500: Should Investors Buy The Dip?
S&P500: Should Investors Buy The Dip? …
Daily Insights
Keep Portfolio Duration Close To Benchmark For Now
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends investors keep portfolio duration close to benchmark for now. They will increase rate exposure as the labor market downturn worsens. Treasury yields are up slightly to start the year, but last Friday’s…
Daily Insights
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Geopolitical Charts To Kick Off 2024

The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish after the election.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken

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