Developed Countries
Worsening manufacturing data reinforces our defensive stance as expectations rebound but observed activity continues to deteriorate. The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to -16.0 from -9.2, well below estimates. Expectations rebounded, but the…
Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates.
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Consumer Sentiment Rebounds, But Fed Still Trapped by Sticky Expectations
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How Tight Is The Labor Market?
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The S&P 500 has breached 6000 and may retest all-time highs, but we would not recommend chasing the rally. Risk assets have shrugged off recession fears, with stress indicators like the VIX, SKEW, and VVIX still subdued, signaling limited demand for…
Further labor market deterioration would trigger a shift to maximum underweight in equities. While soft indicators have markedly deteriorated, hard labor data remains relatively resilient, though it has clearly weakened. The labor market is still in…
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US-China Trade De-Escalation Won’t Drive New Highs
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US: Cold CPI Is No Green Light For Cuts in June
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Shifting Commodity Correlations
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Mixed signals from the NAB Business Survey reinforce our underweight in Australian government bonds and long AUD exposure. In May, business confidence rebounded slightly, rising to 2 from -1, but current conditions dipped to 0 from 2. Profitability continued…