Developed Countries

Geopolitical risks and fragile margins reinforce a defensive allocation stance, as oil shocks and high US equity valuations pose growing downside risks. At this month’s Views Meeting, our strategists discussed the potential fallout from an Iran-Israel…

A stronger Norwegian krone has opened the door to more rate cuts, making Norwegian government bonds more attractive. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jeremie Peloso, European Strategist. With its surprise 25 basis point cut, the Norges Bank made its first…

Worsening manufacturing momentum supports a long duration stance as recession risks remain elevated. The June Philly Fed survey came in below expectations, unchanged at -4.0. While shipments increased, new orders decelerated and employment measures fell.…

Our US Equity strategists remain cautious on small caps, as tariff exposure and slowing growth continue to weigh on this equity style. With the S&P 500 nearing its recent peak, some investors are rotating into riskier segments like small caps, but the…

European central banks are pivoting quickly amid deflationary pressure, reinforcing our long UK Gilts and short GBP trades. The Norges Bank surprised with a 25 bps cut to 4.25%, abandoning its hawkish stance. The Swiss National Bank cut by 25 bps to 0%, in…

Our Geopolitical strategists expect US involvement in Israel’s military campaign against Iran, raising near-term risks to oil supply and market stability. Iran is likely to retaliate by targeting regional oil production and transport infrastructure,…

UK disinflation and labor market softening support our overweight in Gilts and short GBP trade. UK CPI came in slightly hotter than expected in May, with headline inflation at 3.4% y/y (vs. 3.5% in April) and core CPI meeting expectations at 3.5%, down from…

Sweden’s economic fragility and disinflation support further easing, reinforcing our long SEK rates and NOK/SEK trades. The Riksbank cut rates by 25 bps to 2.0% and projected an additional cut, consistent with prior OIS pricing. Forecasts for both headline…

The Fed held rates steady between 4.25% to 4.5% and maintained a hawkish tilt despite soft data, reinforcing our long-duration and steepener trades. The updated dot plot showed upward revisions to both inflation and unemployment projections, as well as to…

The BoJ’s decision to keep rates unchanged while announcing a tapering of bond purchases reinforces our underweight stance on JGBs and long bias on the yen. While the decision was broadly neutral, the reduction in asset purchases adds a hawkish undertone,…