Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Developed Countries

f_image_20240517_220849.PNG
Recap Of Q1-24 Earnings: Looking Ahead

Q1 Earnings and sales growth were strong, but the devil is in the details: Without the Magnificent Five, earnings growth for the index would have been negative. On a positive note, margins have stabilized, and earnings growth is expected to broaden into yearend. Companies are optimistic about the economy. Development of AI applications is in full swing, but few companies are monetizing them yet. Consumer spending is strong but is slowing. We reiterate our underweight of consumer sectors, and overweight of Software and Services as the “don’t fight AI” adage holds.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Diverging Coincident And Leading Indicators Reflect Delayed Impact From Tight Policy
The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in April from 0.3% m/m. Deteriorating consumer sentiment and manufacturing new orders led the overall decline. Contractions in the year-on-year changes in this…
Daily Insights
Even Mild Recessions Lead To Bear Markets
An adverse shock is not a recession prerequisite. The empirical record shows that the US economy regularly evolves its way into a contraction with little fanfare. If current cooling trends continue, we project a recession will begin in late 2024/early 2025. …
Daily Insights
The BoC Will Cut Rates More Aggressively Than The Fed
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the BoC should have sufficient evidence of Canadian disinflation to cut rates this summer. The market is pricing in a similar amount of rate cuts for the BoC and the Fed over the next 12 months.…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240517_144435.PNG
Digging Into EM Sovereigns

We dig into the USD-denominated Emerging Market Sovereign Index to see which credit tiers and countries offer value relative to US Credit.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Manufacturing Activity Is Not At An Inflection Point
US industrial production stalled in April against expectations of a moderate pace of growth (0.1% m/m) and March’s growth rate was revised lower from 0.4% m/m to 0.1% m/m. Notably, pro-cyclical manufacturing production unexpectedly contracted 0.3% m/m from a…
Daily Insights
Junk Bonds Are Ignoring The Rise In Unemployment
Credit spreads continue to price in a Goldilocks scenario. US investment grade and high-yield OAS have tightened 41 and 137 bps from their October peaks, resulting in handsome outperformance by both sectors relative to duration-equivalent Treasuries. …
Daily Insights
Industrial Metals Are First To Sniff Out A Recession
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, among the commodity groups, industrial metals provide the most reliable leading signal that the US economy is heading toward recession. Industrial metals’ greater exposure to the very…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240515_175907.PNG
Election Campaign Heads Into Summer

The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
US Retail Sales Stall In April, Revised Downwards In March
US retail sales remained unchanged in April, a downside surprise from expectations of 0.4% m/m growth. Notably, the retail sales control group (an input to GDP) declined by 0.3% m/m despite expectations of mild growth and all of the March figures were revised…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics