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Corporate Bonds

Recession Or Not, Spreads Have Little Room To Tighten
US investment grade and high yield spreads have tightened 22 and 75 bps since their August highs. Risk assets have cheered the outsized Fed rate cut as the narrative in markets aligns with the Fed’s conviction it can deliver a soft landing. Our US Bond…
Daily Insights
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Defaults Have Peaked, But Corporate Spreads Are Still Expensive

We update our corporate default rate model and consider the implications for corporate bond spreads.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Refinancing Needs Are A Eurozone High Yield Headwind
The pro-cyclical Eurozone economy is highly exposed to a global downturn, which we expect will materialize by early 2025. The ECB is behind the curve and we thus expect it to ease more aggressively than markets expect next year. A dovish surprise in 2025…
Daily Insights
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Cuts Are Coming, But At What Pace?

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
Euro Area Balance Sheet Health: Time to Call 911
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, an increase in borrowing costs will further weaken vulnerable corporate balance sheets. As suggested by their Corporate Health Monitors (CHMs), the health of High-Yield corporate balance sheets…
Daily Insights
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We Want No Credit

Turn negative on European credit. At current levels, spreads do not compensate for the risk of a recession materializing later this year or in early 2025.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Jeremie Peloso, Robert Timper
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Tracking Labor Market Momentum

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
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Municipal Bonds: Are The Higher Yields Worth It?

We calculate expected returns for several different US fixed income sectors with a focus on how municipal bonds stack up against the investment alternatives.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q2/24: Stay The Defensive Course

In this report, we present the quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. Rebounding growth and political instability led to slightly negative portfolio performance in Q2/2024. As global growth starts to moderate, we continue to favor government bonds over credit. Maintain a defensive portfolio stance.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Are Chinese Bond Markets Due For A Reversal?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, onshore bonds are vulnerable to an investor sentiment reversal. Chinese 10-year government bond yields will likely trend lower to below 2% over the next 12 months. Investors have been piling…
Daily Insights

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