Business Cycles
Flash PMIs sent a mixed signal about manufacturing and service sector conditions across DM economies in July. The Euro Area release was particularly weak. An unexpected 0.7-point decline in the Manufacturing PMI and a 0.9 point drop in the Services PMI…
China’s Politburo meeting delivered a disappointing signal about Beijing’s willingness to deliver meaningful stimulus. Although policymakers pledged support for domestic demand, consumer sentiment, and risk prevention, they underscored that the measures will…
Equity investors resoundingly approved of the large-cap banks’ second-quarter earnings reports: in the seven sessions since C, JPM and WFC kicked off 2Q23 earnings on July 14th, the S&P 500 Banks Index rose 6.3% to the S&P 500’s 1%, with all but two…
South Korean exports in the first 20 days of July corroborate the signal from Taiwanese export orders that Asian trade conditions remain weak. The former declined by -15.3% y/y, undoing the optimism following a 5.3% y/y increase in the first 20 days of June.…
The Japanese yen slid by 2.1% vis-à-vis the US dollar last week, reversing the prior week’s rally. This latest bout of weakness comes on the back of speculation that the Bank of Japan will keep policy unchanged at its Friday meeting. On the one hand, both…
Euro Area consumer confidence has been steadily recovering since it bottomed in September. Most recently, the -15.1 flash estimate for July surprised to the upside and marks its highest reading since February 2022 – ahead of the sharp deterioration following…
The Equity Analyzer Platform uses a 30-factor model called the BCA Score to help our clients build robust portfolios. Multi-factor models are constructed to avoid the common pitfalls of focusing on one factor dimension, such as value. Often value stocks are…
Taiwanese export orders sent a pessimistic signal about the global trade cycle. The contraction deepened in June from -17.6% y/y to -24.9% y/y – delivering a downside surprise to expectations of a 20.3% y/y decline. The weakness was broad-based across all of…
The Chinese yuan was among the best performing currencies on Thursday after authorities implemented measures to support the yuan. Specifically, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set its daily fixing at a stronger-than-anticipated rate and allowed more…
Investors have become increasingly more optimistic about the economic outlook. BoA’s Global Fund Manager Survey shows the share of investors surveyed expecting the global economy to experience a soft landing over the next 12 months rose to 68% in July. That…