Peter Berezin’s Thought of the Day: Oil Shocks Ain’t What They Once Were

Since 1970, every US recession excluding the pandemic downturn was preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices. As I write this, WTI is trading at $71/bbl, up 24% year-to-date and up 19% relative to the Q4 2025 average. That said, today’s oil price is still only 8% higher than the average for all of 2025. If oil prices stay broadly where they are, the impact on the US economy should be limited.