October has been a bad month for equities — particularly AI/tech ones — and a great month for oil. We do not think that the AI supercycle is ending, it has more room to go. Token price decline is a sign of a price war between LLMs, not a decline in demand. In fact, that price war is what is driving datacenter profitability, which is what the bull market is actually based on.
As such, what matters on a tactical time horizon is whether Trump capitulates on Iran. If he does not, the market will have to correct. We take the bullish side and expect oil prices to decline imminently, forcing a short squeeze and powering equities higher.
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BCA | GeoMacro
A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.
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