FICC

FX markets have dominated headlines over the past week, with a meltdown in the dollar and a surge in the yen. This week’s note unpacks the forces behind these moves and assesses whether recent price action marks a temporary dislocation or the start of a more durable FX shift.

The Fed will keep rates on hold in H1 2026, but dovish policy surprises are likely in the second half of the year.

Special Report

Recession risks in the UK are clearly rising. In this Special Report, we unpack why labor market deterioration, falling wage growth, and normalizing inflation support deeper BoE cuts ahead. We then discuss how to position across gilts, the pound, and UK equities.

Special Report

The dollar’s grip on global finance remains formidable, but the foundations are slowly shifting. Our new Dollar Dominance Indicator cuts through the noise, showing why USD usage stays sticky even as reserve demand erodes, and what this long transition means for FX and alternative reserve assets.

The 10-year Treasury term premium is now competitive with Baa- and Ba-rated credit spreads. Even without term premium compression, duration carry trades could outperform credit carry trades in a low rate vol environment.

After silver's parabolic surge, we assess the rally's vulnerability by examining its weakest links. We conclude that silver is ripe for a pullback.

In our 2026 inflation outlook, we explain why 2026 will bring more disinflation, upside risks remain contained, and how to position in ILBs across major markets.

Mortgage spread tightening has run its course. Any further drop in mortgage rates will necessitate lower Treasury yields.

This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror.

Our Q1 outlook maps global growth, curve dynamics, and policy surprises, which we then translate to our recommended global fixed income portfolio allocations and trades.