Fourth Quarter 2025 Strategy Outlook: Still On The Tightrope

After being an optimist on stocks and the global economy in 2022 and 2023, Peter turned defensive last year. That decision was a flop. Peter will discuss where he went wrong and what his outlook is now. His presentation will focus on:

• The odds of a soft landing over the next 12 months (30% chance in his view), recession (50% chance), and overheating (20% chance).
• The outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios.
• Why investors misunderstand the impact of AI on corporate profits and what signals to look for to determine when the AI boom will turn to bust.
• Whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend and whether the yen will ever strengthen again.
• Why gold may still be in the middle innings of a bull market.
• The latest signals from the MacroQuant model, which distills hundreds of leading indicators to predict the direction of stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.