Bull/Bear Debate: Buy Dips or Sell Strength in 2H2026

The Bull Case:

• Highly visible forward earnings drive the market, with backlogs outpacing capacity
• Valuations remain clear of dot-com-era extremes
• Capex boom extends well beyond tech
• Positioning: S&P 500 target raised to 8100; stay overweight equities

The Bear Case:

• Shortage-driven "earnings bubble" – a 30-40% correction looms when it bursts
• AI investment rivals past bubbles; wave of AI IPOs signals late-cycle
• Rising yields and stocks on a collision course; thin breadth points to a coming drawdown
• Bullish on AI technology, bearish on AI profits — expect commoditized models with thin margins
• Positioning: Slight underweight equities; flat-to-down near term, defensive pivot possible later this year