US Macro & Market Outlook
Track US growth, inflation, Fed policy, and the market implications of the changing cycle.
Putting Inflation Fears In Their Place
The Fed hiked rates last week, but Fed officials expect this tightening cycle will involve no more than three 25-basis point hikes, contingent on inflation coming down quickly in 2027. We’re inclined…
The US Immigration Crackdown: Another Inflation Shock In The Making?
Labor supply is not meaningfully boosting inflation today, but the net exit of unauthorized immigrants has lowered the bar for stronger labor demand to turn inflationary. Hawkish monetary policy surpr…
Chief Economist’s View: Will Worries About AI Doom End the AI Boom?
Concerns by the major AI companies that they are locked into a financially unsustainable arms race for AI dominance are likely playing as much a role in their newfound “go slow” approach as concerns o…
Bessent Can't Have It All
Scott Bessent’s attempts to suppress yields while financing large twin deficits risk crashing foreign inflows, the dollar, US bonds, and equities. Without a major equity selloff or large-scale commerc…
Don’t Worry About The Savings Rate (Yet)
Concerns about the savings rate’s sustainability ease after adjusting for retirements and capital gains. The US economy continues to grow at a pace that is neither too hot nor too cold and investors s…
Chief Economist’s View: Give Me Chastity But Not Yet
An acute shortage of AI hardware will support tech stocks into year-end. However, AI companies may need to ultimately generate $10 trillion per year in revenue to justify their capex. Barring a massiv…
