US Macro & Market Outlook
Track US growth, inflation, Fed policy, and the market implications of the changing cycle.
What’s Different This Time
We highlight several potential inflections in well-established structural factors, pointing out ways that markets might respond differently this time to economic data and policy actions.
Mapping The Point Where Stocks And Bonds Could Collide
Rising rates don’t halt bull markets but real yields exceeding the economy’s potential long-run growth rate could. That relative level could lead to a stock-bond collision if it persisted long enough…
Putting Inflation Fears In Their Place
The Fed hiked rates last week, but Fed officials expect this tightening cycle will involve no more than three 25-basis point hikes, contingent on inflation coming down quickly in 2027. We’re inclined…
The US Immigration Crackdown: Another Inflation Shock In The Making?
Labor supply is not meaningfully boosting inflation today, but the net exit of unauthorized immigrants has lowered the bar for stronger labor demand to turn inflationary. Hawkish monetary policy surpr…
Chief Economist’s View: Will Worries About AI Doom End the AI Boom?
Concerns by the major AI companies that they are locked into a financially unsustainable arms race for AI dominance are likely playing as much a role in their newfound “go slow” approach as concerns o…
Bessent Can't Have It All
Scott Bessent’s attempts to suppress yields while financing large twin deficits risk crashing foreign inflows, the dollar, US bonds, and equities. Without a major equity selloff or large-scale commerc…
