US Macro & Market Outlook Track US growth, inflation, Fed policy, and the market implications of the changing cycle. Image The Equity Wealth Effect Is Real Four decades of robust stock market gains have positioned the equity wealth effect to play a larger role in the business cycle. by Doug Peta Aug 17, 2026 Image Chief Economist’s View: Late-Cycle Dynamics As long as the AI boom keeps booming, all other investment considerations will remain on the back burner. However, if the AI trade fizzles, this would expose deep-seated problems within the global eco… by Peter Berezin Jul 23, 2026 Image The Rent Is Too Damn High And Other Housing Misnomers News flash: Young urban professionals are not gasping under the weight of an impossible rent burden. Investors should not be led astray by lightly examined popular narratives. by Doug Peta Jul 20, 2026 Image US Profit Margins: How High Can They Go? The Goldilocks environment for US profit margins should start to sour next year. Contrary to conventional wisdom, AI could end up eroding margins for both producers and consumers of artificial intelli… by Peter Berezin Jul 9, 2026 Image What About Interest Income? We are increasingly being asked if higher for longer interest rates could help spur consumption by boosting interest income. This report examines household income and balance sheet data to see if they… by Doug Peta Jul 6, 2026 Image The Ever-Resilient US Consumer The most vulnerable households have whittled down their real debt balances while achieving significant real wealth gains. The combination has made consumption more resilient to income hiccups than in… by Doug Peta Jun 22, 2026 Our Strategists Doug Peta Head of Essentials Doug Peta helps investors efficiently apply macro analysis to their investment processes. His approach to investment strategy is founded on the study of cycles and is meant to cut through the barrage... Arthur Budaghyan Head of CoreMacro Arthur is the Platform Head of CoreMacro. He joined BCA in 1999 and has held the Chief Strategist role since 2005, managing investment strategies that span four asset classes – equities,... Peter Berezin Chief Economist & Head of CoreMacro | Global Macro Peter is BCA’s Chief Economist and Head of CoreMacro. He leads the firm’s efforts to analyze global macroeconomic trends and their implications for financial markets. He also designed the firm’s...
Doug Peta Head of Essentials Doug Peta helps investors efficiently apply macro analysis to their investment processes. His approach to investment strategy is founded on the study of cycles and is meant to cut through the barrage...
Arthur Budaghyan Head of CoreMacro Arthur is the Platform Head of CoreMacro. He joined BCA in 1999 and has held the Chief Strategist role since 2005, managing investment strategies that span four asset classes – equities,...
Peter Berezin Chief Economist & Head of CoreMacro | Global Macro Peter is BCA’s Chief Economist and Head of CoreMacro. He leads the firm’s efforts to analyze global macroeconomic trends and their implications for financial markets. He also designed the firm’s...
