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elections and investment risk

 

In this report we highlight seven surprises with non-negligible odds that could tip the scales in favor of Republicans for the White House by November 5. But if nothing changes, then history and our quant model slightly favor Democrats for reelection with a 55% chance. We shifted our subjective odds back to Democrats as well. Unemployment and equity volatility pose the largest risks. Recessionary trends could cause the market to sell off at the worst time for Vice President Kamala Harris.