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Cover of BCA’s July 2024 GeoMacro report on U.S. yields, China, and bond-equity market correlation.

Tactical: Is November 5th Already Here? The bullish scenario is solid. The economy is slowing down, yields are well behaved, and thus the Fed can proceed to cut rates in September. 

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is doing everything it can to ensure that the Fed is lenient, even so far as to create new public sector job openings out of thin air! However, the rising odds of a “GOP Sweep” could cause bond yields to go the “wrong way” amidst a slowdown. 

This would not be positive for equities.