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The triggering of the Joshi rule presages an accelerating uptrend in US unemployment. Markets have already reacted aggressively because some versions of the broadly watched Sahm rule were also triggered, albeit by the quirk of hurricane Beryl pushing up temporary unemployment. One risk is that the Sahm rule ‘un-triggers’ next month and unwinds some of these moves. Monthly volatility aside, a loosening labour market will finally slay wage inflation and force the Fed to pivot fully to the jobs part of its mandate.