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BCA report “Don’t Fight the Fed… Unless You’re the Fed,” on inflation, tightening, and bond market risks.

The current surge in US measured productivity looks very unlike what occurred in the mid-to-late 1990s. 

A detailed breakdown of labor productivity growth points to atypical labor market compositional effects – namely a significant decline in services employment – as being responsible for the apparent rise in productivity. In addition, technological disinflation, a major ingredient of the late 1990s “disinflationary boom”, is absent today.