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A Presentation with BCA Research

Geopolitical Strategy

Geopolitical Strategy Presentation

Topics of Discussion:

  • President Trump’s historic comeback shows that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will increase, not decrease, in relevance.
  • Hold cash on tactical basis, as global equities and bonds will both suffer until Trump’s initial policy actions are known..
  • Stay overweight USD and US equities relative to rest of world until the first salvo of the trade war is priced.
  • Stay short or neutral CNY-USD on a tactical basis and stay short Chinese equities unless and until social unrest prompts a massive fiscal bazooka.
  • Favor India and ASEAN over China within emerging market portfolios.
  • Stay short euro and European equities. Favor developed over emerging Europe until Ukraine ceasefire starts to take shape, likely within the next 12 months.

Seats are limited so reserve your spot today!

  • Date: Tuesday, February 5, 2025
  • Time: 8:00 AM - 9:30 AM
  • Location: Luxembourg

RSVP: vishan.patel@bcaresearch.com

 

Matt Gertken

Chief Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy US Political Strategy

Matt is the Chief Strategist for both our Geopolitical Strategy and US Political Strategy services, where he oversees our coverage of market- relevant policy developments in the US and worldwide.

Providing data-driven, non-partisan, macroeconomic, and policy research, he and his teams take a geopolitical approach to making discretionary trade recommendations for investors. He is also a member of the BCA Research Leadership Team.

Before joining BCA in 2015, Matt served as a Senior Analyst at Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor) and in multiple academic and publishing roles. Matt has 18 years of experience in the field and appears frequently in global news media. He’s often remarked that political strategy is about getting policy settings right, improving scenario analysis and probabilities, and capitalizing on risks and opportunities.

Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.