Our Commodity strategists expect oil prices to move higher as de-escalation hopes fade and Strait of Hormuz supply risks reassert themselves. Recent volatility reflect headline-driven uncertainty, with markets swinging between prospects of an imminent Strait reopening and fears of ceasefire breakdow...
Our GeoMacro strategists argue that prevailing market narratives around the Gulf conflict rest on three flawed assumptions. First, that the UAE’s role as a financial hub is at risk; second, that Iran can sustain a closure of the Strait of Hormuz; and third, that the conflict is primarily about press...
As an industrial metal, copper acts as a barometer of economic activity. Silver and gold are safe-haven assets with inflation-hedging properties, though silver is relatively more sensitive to global growth developments given that industrial applications account for roughly half of silver demand. The...
Despite the recent market rout, gold’s performance has maintained its leadership position. Global equities are up 7.5% in 2024YTD, global bonds are up 2.6% over the same period while gold prices have rallied by a solid 17%. Given our high conviction that the US economy will tip into recession by ear...
Brent prices have fallen 6% so far in July, reversing their June gains. Interestingly, these losses are occurring despite escalating Middle East tensions and quickening Chinese industrial profit growth in June (see The Numbers), both of which are supportive developments for oil prices. Within the br...
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, commodity prices typically rally toward the end of the business cycle. In the past six recessions, the S&P 500 peaked before commodity prices. While there is significant variability across recessions, on average, the S&P GSCI topped ou...
