This week, we send you a Style Chart Pack without a front section. We are currently working on the 2025 outlook, which will be released on December 9....
A change in government is the likeliest outcome of the next election, but the pre-election period will be stretched to ensure that the recently announced stimulus trickles down to voters. The next Prime Minister must face President Trump on top of dealing with domestic housing challenges. Go long Ca...
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a modestly growing economy imbued with post-election optimism, while highlighting some caution about employment. The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing modest growth but increased post-election expectations. The picture remains...
Japan is the main driver of global liquidity, so a big risk in 2025 is a rising Japanese real yield; Trump’s US economy will be supply-constrained, keeping US unemployment contained and US inflation stubborn; China’s fiscal stimulus has lost its mojo, so Chinese bond yields must fall further; Market...
The flurry of global political instability that we expected after the US election is coming to pass. Investors should de-risk in the near term as stocks are flying high but face the turmoil of Biden's last months and then Trump tariffs....
In our Alpha report, we deliver our Annual Forecast. The current macro narrative is that the US will continue to outperform the rest of the world, in large part because President Trump will again deliver fiscally led growth and global tariff carnage. In our view, 2025 will be the year of “Peaks.” Pe...
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that...
