In most developed economies, rising inflation expectations will lift them further above the 2 percent target, limiting the scope for further interest rate cuts. But in Japan, rising inflation expectations will lift them up to the BoJ’s 2 percent target, removing the BoJ’s justification for its zero-...
In our Beta report, we take a break from US politics and focus on the investment implications of climate change. Our colleague Ritika Mankar, of BCA’s Global Investment Strategy, makes a case for long-term investors to actually completely ignore climate change in their strategic asset allocation. Gl...
In our Alpha report, we reiterate that we expect President Trump to curb his most enthusiastic plans for tax cuts due to the pressure from the bond market. That will be good for equities in the long run – as it will assuage the pressure on yields. However, it should be negative for the USD as invest...
Paradoxically, raging optimism on the US economy is making a reacceleration in growth less likely in 2025. The reaction of the bond market has made the Fed rethink its cutting campaign. Markets are also constraining Trump’s agenda. US manufacturing will not recover with a surging dollar. Fears of in...
The latest version of the MacroQuant model sees the near-term risks to stocks as slightly tilted to the downside. It is neutral on bond duration and expects the US dollar to continue strengthening in the near term....
The latest version of the MacroQuant model sees the near-term risks to stocks as slightly tilted to the downside. It is neutral on bond duration and expects the US dollar to continue strengthening in the near term....
Our last publication of the year lets the charts do the talking about why we think the consumer post-pandemic momentum is fading along with the labor market....
