Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities
Translate fast-moving political and geopolitical developments into probability-weighted market risks, opportunities, and positioning implications.
Liberation Day 2.0
President Trump is raising tariffs again, now through 2027 – and more countries will retaliate this time. While markets can climb over “Liberation Day 2.0,” investors should be wary of today's aggress…
Germany Is Not Reliving 1933
Alternative for Germany’s election win in the state of Saxony-Anhalt is overrated.
No Exodus From Treasuries … For Now
There is no evidence that there is a run on US government bonds. All the data at our disposal, and the curated views of our bond specialists, suggest that the US bond market may have 99 problems, but…
Trading Bonds On Vibes
Markets have become obsessed with the rise of global long-dated yields. To some extent, we agree with the concern. Bonds are trading on "vibes," alarmed by the incoherent US geopolitical policy. Oil p…
Woke 2.0 Can (And Will) Win In 2028
Our colleague Matt Gertken has penned a sober analysis on the midterms, calling for a Democratic Party sweep in 2026. It is a measured, data-driven, analysis that we encourage you to read.This quick I…
Risks To The Epic Rally In Defense Stocks
US aerospace and defense stocks still have a structural tailwind from geopolitics, but face rising cyclical challenges from macro and market fundamentals, as well as eventual Iran and Ukraine ceasefir…
