Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities

Left-wing populism will likely prevail within the Democratic Party and inspire large tax hikes in 2029. But the US does not face a socialist takeover.

We remain tactically bullish due to the combination of geopolitical risks in the Middle East easing and the ramping up of the AI boom. In this month’s chartpack, we articulate the reasoning behind bot…

The fragile balance in the Ukraine war has broken – the conflict can escalate and take investors who are focused on Iran by surprise.

Last month we "stuck our neck out" and reaffirmed our bullishness towards risk asset. This month, we have confirmation that the risky bet is paying off. Iran and the US remain materially constrained f…

The Strait of Hormuz is a unique geographical feature. Other than the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits that allow passage between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea (via the Sea of Marmara), there ar…

The Supreme Court, Senate, Fed, and other institutions have proved resilient so far under the Trump administration. US institutional erosion is overstated.