Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities
Translate fast-moving political and geopolitical developments into probability-weighted market risks, opportunities, and positioning implications.
Global Risk Outlook Q4 2026
We keep the Global Geopolitical Risk Score at 8 because there are still no ceasefires in Europe or the Middle East. Russia is provoking NATO, which will need to push back. Iran, emboldened by the lack…
A Bad Place For A Plague
The Irkutsk plague scare is not yet a crisis, but if it becomes one, Russia is a bad place for it to happen.
Brazil: Political Ambitions Will Meet Economic Reality
The most bullish development for Brazil from the weekend’s elections was not the higher odds of a right-wing presidency, but the likely president’s (Flávio Bolsonaro) stronghold in Congress. Upgrade B…
Pirates Get Paid: Limited Upside To Crude From Here
The situation in the Middle East is becoming complicated. Over the past week, several events raise the odds that Brent prices could burst through their 2026 high of $126 per barrel.
Liberation Day 2.0
President Trump is raising tariffs again, now through 2027 – and more countries will retaliate this time. While markets can climb over “Liberation Day 2.0,” investors should be wary of today's aggress…
Germany Is Not Reliving 1933
Alternative for Germany’s election win in the state of Saxony-Anhalt is overrated.
