In this webinar Matt Gertken discusses:
- Harris’s nomination bounce will subside as US election season gets real after Labor Day.
- Opinion polls show a statistical tie in key swing states.
- Our quant model is mathematically “too close to call.”
- The job market is deteriorating while geopolitical instability is rising – major risks for Harris.
- Republicans are highly likely to win the Senate, meaning Harris would face gridlock – limited tax hikes.
- But if Trump wins, the GOP will likely win a full sweep – meaning major tax cuts, immigration curbs, and tariffs.
- Investors should brace for volatility and favor defensive sectors until the US policy outlook is settled.