China Macro & Investment Outlook

After a sharp five-year correction, China's top-tier housing markets will likely bottom out late next year. The rest of the country, however, will keep struggling with oversupply.

China's policy stance is gradually becoming more supportive of households, but a decisive reflationary pivot has yet to materialize. In the meantime, we favor large state-owned banks and onshore utili…

China’s investment has hit cyclical and structural limits. Mounting economic pressures will likely push Beijing toward a more aggressive, consumer-focused reflationary stance over the next one to two…

China’s manufacturing edge should endure in the next few years. AI will challenge the country’s advantage in some industries, but geopolitics and weakening productive investment pose greater threats t…

In this report, we highlight notable developments on both sides of China’s BoP: a widening external surplus on the current account side, and shifts in how that surplus is recycled abroad through BoP f…

Outside semiconductor stocks, EM/China profitability has been well below both their US peers and the levels that prevailed during the EM structural bull market in the 2000s. Over a 3- to 5-year horizo…