China Macro & Investment Outlook

Outside semiconductor stocks, EM/China profitability has been well below both their US peers and the levels that prevailed during the EM structural bull market in the 2000s. Over a 3- to 5-year horizo…

China does not produce too much. It spends too little. The only viable way for China to reduce investment without raising unemployment is by lowering national savings. Doing so is likely to be politic…

China's economy is slowing, but policymakers are unlikely to launch broad-based stimulus in H2. Meanwhile, the emergence of China's "Kimi moment" underscores Beijing's commitment to technological upgr…

As a short-term (0-3 months) trade, go long an equal-weighted basket of Chinese Investable and A-shares / short the KOSPI. This is a bet on mean reversion. We do not recommend that medium- and long-te…

The rebound in China's producer prices and profits this year owes more to external demand than to meaningful progress under Beijing's anti-involution campaign.

China holds a structural advantage in this "Age of Electricity" by operating the world's largest electricity system. However, this advantage has inherent limits, and the US remains competitive despite…