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Money/Credit/Debt

Third Quarter 2025 Strategy Outlook: Waiting For The Whites Of The Recession’s Eyes

Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
NOK NOK, Who's There? Rate Cuts
A stronger Norwegian krone has opened the door to more rate cuts, making Norwegian government bonds more attractive. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jeremie Peloso, European Strategist. With its surprise 25 basis point cut, the Norges Bank made its first…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Tactical SEK Bearishness Backed By Dovish Riksbank
Sweden’s economic fragility and disinflation support further easing, reinforcing our long SEK rates and NOK/SEK trades. The Riksbank cut rates by 25 bps to 2.0% and projected an additional cut, consistent with prior OIS pricing. Forecasts for both headline…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The Tariff Revenue Tradeoff

Bond market volatility will spike again in the near term. The Fed is committed to an easing cycle yet the Trump administration’s signature fiscal policy action will stimulate the economy. Tariffs are supposed to keep the budget deficit contained but they are inflationary. 

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
ECB: A Deceleration, Not A Pivot
The ECB’s expected rate cut to 2% marks a slower easing phase, capping Bund yields. The shift to a quarterly pace of cuts, barring surprises, confirms a more gradual approach despite ongoing disinflation and weak growth. Staff projections downgraded inflation…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Tariffs & Return Assumptions: Private Credit Declines
Our PMA strategists published Part 2 of their Capital Market Assumptions update, focusing on Direct Lending. They project gross annualized returns of 7.7% unlevered and 10.7% levered for Global Middle Market Direct Lending, and 6.5% and 8.7% respectively for…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Global Buyout Return Assumptions: Middle Market Versus Large
Our Private Markets & Alternatives team’s latest update to return expectations for Global Buyout yields a modest increase in projected returns, including the expectation of a greater multiple expansion tailwind in the Large+ segment. The team…
Daily Insights by Jeremie Peloso
The Swiss National Bank Has Its Back Against The Wall
Swiss National Bank will have to resort to negative interest rates and FX intervention before year-end. Swiss inflation fell to 0% year-over-year in April, or the lower end of the SNB’s 0%-2% target range, and the continued strength in the Swiss Franc…
Daily Insights by Jeremie Peloso
Türkiye: Erdogan's Decline
Special Report

Erdogan's rule continues to decline. Social unrest will persist, governance will erode, and the macro backdrop will deteriorate further. We recommend underweighting Turkish assets. 

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma
Trump’s First 100 Days
Special Report

Do not play the bounce in US and global cyclical assets as Trump backpedals from the trade war. China will talk, but the pace will be slow and the outcome disappointing. Fiscal stimulus will surprise marginally in the EU, China, and even the US, but still may not rescue the business cycle. 

Geopolitical Strategy, US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

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