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Fixed Income

Trimmed Mean PCE Shows Disinflation Is Abating
The Dallas Fed released its trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for February on Friday. The trimmed mean PCE is a measure of underlying inflation which excludes the top 31% and the bottom 25% of the PCE basket and then uses a weighted average of the remaining…
Daily Insights
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Recession Postponed

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
BoC Will Be More Dovish Than The Fed
The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of this year on Monday. While there are some early signs of stabilization, overall demand continues to be weak. The indicator for future sales growth remains well below its…
Daily Insights
March In Review
The soft-landing narrative dominated the behavior of financial markets in March, with most major global risk assets posting above average returns. In particular, the burgeoning ‘risk on’ sentiment led to a rally across global equity markets. On this front,…
Daily Insights
Neutral BTP-Bund Spreads, Favor BTPs Versus Euro Area IG
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should favor Italian BTPs over Euro Area IG until there is a better entry point to add exposure to BTP-bund spreads. The team’s latest estimates of the neutral rate suggest that,…
Daily Insights
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A Checklist For Turning Defensive

We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Italy Is No Longer Europe’s Problem Child
Special Report

Italy is no longer Europe’s problem child. Investors will be better off reassessing their views of Italian assets, which represent a buying opportunity on a structural time horizon.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: On A Tightrope

The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
No Rush
The message from Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech on Wednesday could not be clearer: there’s still no rush. While market participants as well as the FOMC are still pricing in three rate cuts this year, the recent hotter-than-anticipated inflation data…
Daily Insights
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Ranking US Corporate Bond Sectors Part 2

We expand our risk/reward analysis of US investment grade corporate bonds to focus on the 44 industry groups included in the Bloomberg index.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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