Fixed Income
The May US jobs report reinforces our defensive stance as labor momentum is slowing even if not collapsing. Payrolls rose 139k, beating estimates, but decelerating from a downwardly revised 147k. Two-month revisions cut 95k jobs, again signaling that initial…
Unlike in past episodes, US dollar weakness will be deflationary, not reflationary, for the rest of the world. In this context, EM local currency bonds offer a superior risk-reward profile. Stay long domestic bonds in select EM countries.
The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.75% but signaled a dovish shift, pushing us to overweight Canadian government bonds and go long CORRA futures. The policy rate remains within the BoC’s neutral range, allowing the Bank to wait for more clarity on trade…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2025.
Bitcoin has become one of investors’ favorite assets to safeguard against fading US exceptionalism, but physical bullion has some macro advantages over its digital counterpart. First, bitcoin has benefited greatly from the selloff in Treasurys. While US…
Global currency markets have entered a new era. This implies that the framework for analyzing exchange rates must also change. We introduce a new framework for analyzing EM currencies and classify them into resilient and vulnerable categories. Finally, we are adding more EM domestic bonds to our portfolio and making many changes to our currency trades.
This Insight looks at the implications of the RBNZ’s rate cut on New Zealand assets.
BCA’s latest technical analysis suggests that global bond markets are oversold, offering an attractive entry point to add long-duration bets in fixed-income portfolios. Our Global Fixed Income strategists analyzed a timing tool to assess when to adjust…
The upward trend in global food prices suggests that food inflation risks re-accelerating in the US. Historically, US food inflation lags the United Nations’ global food price index by about nine months. The annual growth in global food prices has been…
Producer prices in Spain surprised to the downside, foreshadowing a relapse in Euro Area inflation and cementing the ECB’s dovish stance. The Spanish PPI index fell to 1.9% in April, continuing the disinflation trend from the last period while recording the…