Fixed Income
India’s central bank held rates at 5.5%, but restrictive policy, weak credit impulse, and rising external risks support further easing and a long bond position. Real lending rates remain near decade highs, and the negative credit impulse already weighs…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2025.
While the early resignation of Fed Gov. Kugler opened the door for a politically aligned nominee, yields will ultimately be determined by the economic outlook. Her departure triggered a further intraday DXY drop, as markets reacted to the prospect of a…
Hot July inflation does little to alter Switzerland’s near-term deflationary outlook, as soft data and trade risks support a defensive stance and preference for bonds over equities. CPI ticked up to 0.2% y/y from 0.1%, with core rising to 0.8%, both…
Economic activity and hiring cooled significantly in the first half of the year. The most important question for investors is whether this signals an imminent increase in labor market slack.
The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand.
The BoC held rates at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting, but a weak growth outlook and contained inflation reinforce our overweight in Canadian bonds. With policy within the 2.25%–3.25% neutral range, the BoC remains comfortable waiting for clarity…
Investors should anticipate above average Treasury returns during the next 12 months, and curve steepeners will continue to profit.
The Japan-US trade deal removes short-term uncertainty but leaves in place high tariffs. The deal imposes a 15% tariff on most Japanese exports, lower than the previously threatened 25% on autos, and includes Japanese commitments to purchase Boeing aircraft…
Recent criticism of the Fed centers on post-GFC policy, but proposed solutions would risk policy incoherence and higher long-end yields. Criticism covers the Fed’s reliance on balance sheet policies aimed at easing financial conditions after hitting the…