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Emerging Markets

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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Central Bank Rate Cuts: A Savior Or Forewarning?

The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Easier Financial Conditions Won’t Prevent Labor Demand Deterioration
US financial conditions have become noticeably easier since August. The Fed has embarked on its easing cycle with a bang, sending equities higher and spreads lower, while the trade-weighted dollar gave back more than half of its year-to-date gains. The…
Daily Insights
Is Bad News Now Good News For Chinese Equities Too?
September’s Chinese PMIs were uninspiring. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dipped into contraction territory (50.4 to 49.3) despite expectations it would modestly improve. The alternative NBS manufacturing PMI improved from 49.1 to 49.8, above expectations,…
Daily Insights
Checklist For Chinese Business Cycle Recovery
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Market Strategy service, the monetary and fiscal policies announced last week are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China. Below are actions the authorities need to undertake for our colleagues to…
Daily Insights
Upgrade EM To Neutral In Global Equity Portfolios
We highlighted last week that while the Politburo policy announcements are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China, they nevertheless administered a shot of adrenaline to investor sentiment. Chinese equities, China-plays and other…
Daily Insights
European Assets After The Politburo Shock
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the surprise fiscal announcement from China’s Politburo is a very different animal from previous stimulus attempts. Although the details are still vague, it adopts a much more pragmatic tone…
Daily Insights
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The Critical Hour: Geopolitical Outlook, Q4 2024

Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
Is This The Big Bang Stimulus Markets Have Been Waiting For?
This week has not been short of developments on Chinese policy. After unleashing a monetary policy blitz, the authorities held an unscheduled Politburo meeting resulting in a pledge to take actions towards stabilizing the housing market and to support fiscal…
Daily Insights
What To Watch
Daily Insights
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The Politburo Shock And European Assets

China’s Politburo announcement is likely to lead to a repricing of China’s growth in the near-term. Read how investors can hedge against this potent threat to our defensive investment stance.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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