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Currencies

China’s Bumpy Growth Trajectory

China’s recovery is losing steam. Its industrial segments will disappoint, while the pace of consumer spending will be moderate. Overall, the Chinese economic recovery will underwhelm in the months ahead. Odds are that interest rate expectations in China will drop even lower, which will weigh on the RMB.

China Investment Strategy
Asian Export Figures Remain Bleak
Recent Asian trade data do not provide any optimism that the global manufacturing slump is nearing its end. South Korean exports collapsed by 16.1% y/y in the first 20 days of May. While the decline was broad-based, sales to China were particularly weak,…
Daily Insights
King Dollar And Geopolitics
Special Report

In this *Special Report*, we analyze the dollar’s reserve status within the context of geopolitical crosscurrents. In our view, there is more than meets the eye when betting on the end of the dollar’s reserve status.

Geopolitical Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Matt Gertken, Chester Ntonifor
Dollar Rebound: Further To Run?
The DXY index has been rebounding sharply over the past two weeks. Its 2.3% gain over this period has pushed it to a two-month high. A confluence of factors is supporting the dollar’s performance. First, multiple technical indicators have been sending a…
Daily Insights
Policymakers Versus Markets: A Looming Standoff

Global growth will weaken in the coming months, yet monetary authorities worldwide will be reluctant to ease policy. This state of affairs foreshadows a clash between markets and policymakers in the months ahead. China’s recovery is losing steam. The latest divergence between Emerging Asian and LATAM currencies will not last.

Emerging Markets Strategy
Has The Rand Reached Its Low Point?
The South African rand is among the worst performing major global currencies since the DXY peaked on September 27 (behind only the Argentine peso, Russian ruble, and Turkish lira). Given that the ZAR is a high-beta currency, it typically performs well in a…
Daily Insights
Will The BoC Restart The Tightening Cycle?
Recent Canadian data releases have raised concerns that the Bank of Canada may abandon the conditional pause it first telegraphed following its last rate increase on January 25 in favor of more policy tightening. Headline CPI inflation unexpectedly…
Daily Insights
AUD/JPY And Its Message
After a powerful 40% rally from the March 2020 lows, AUD/JPY peaked in September 2022 and has been consolidating those gains in bearish trading pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Although the cross is up 4.5% from the March bottom this year, the rally has…
Daily Insights
BoE: Guided By Evidence
As expected, the Bank of England raised its bank rate by 25bps to 4.5% on Thursday, marking the 12th consecutive rise. Notably the updated projections show a significant improvement in the economic outlook. The upwards growth revisions reflect falling energy…
Daily Insights
The BoE And The Path For Sterling

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

Foreign Exchange Strategy

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