Latest from BCA Research
This week, our three screeners show you how to setup easy monitoring of the BCA Score, take advantage of earnings season in the US, and seek out global stocks that are cheap and high quality.
In today’s Strategy Insight, we discuss the monetary policy outlook for the Bank of Japan, following the 25-bps rate hike overnight, and what it means for JGBs and the yen.
While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive. We are not there yet.
Sentiment will stay positive for now, but downside risks are rising. Investors should proceed cautiously in stock picking and portfolio construction at this juncture, given rising economic and policy uncertainty, which threaten market sentiment, and more broadly, the current bull-market.
Banks have had an amazing run, and while such strong performance is unlikely to repeat, there is still oomph left in the trade thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, stronger demand for loans, a steeper yield curve, and a strong pipeline of capital market activity. Key risks are further tightening of monetary policy and an increase in bad loans. We reiterate our overweight on Capital Markets, Diversified Banks, and Regional Banks.
President Trump is only the second president to have won, lost, and won again in US history, so today’s inaugural address was unlike any other since Grover Cleveland in 1893.
President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.
This week’s report looks at the US dollar, from the lens of one very cyclical currency – the Australian dollar.
We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.