Latest from BCA Research
Labor supply is not meaningfully boosting inflation today, but the net exit of unauthorized immigrants has lowered the bar for stronger labor demand to turn inflationary. Hawkish monetary policy surprises over the coming year are possible.
Recent oil market developments expose the limits of the adjustment mechanisms that have cushioned the global market since the Hormuz closure began. Fortunately, Hormuz dark transits have become the dominant shock absorber in recent months, and rising flows should help mitigate the latest supply disruption going forward.
The Fed is unanimous in expecting a mild tightening cycle of no more than 75 bps, but that outcome is contingent on a rapid drop in core inflation in 2027.
In this screener report, we explore opportunities in duration-resilient large-cap Technology, emerging defense technology, and a conditional entry point into copper.
Concerns by the major AI companies that they are locked into a financially unsustainable arms race for AI dominance are likely playing as much a role in their newfound “go slow” approach as concerns over AI doom.
The world has descended into a full blown Doomer panic since the 27-year-old Anthropic engineer quit over the threat that AI would cause human extinction. Now-famous Jacob Coxon posted that “The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt.”
The situation in the Middle East is becoming complicated. Over the past week, several events raise the odds that Brent prices could burst through their 2026 high of $126 per barrel.
