Latest from BCA Research

Democrats remain slightly favored for the White House because they are the four-year incumbent presidential party and the economy is not in recession. But if the unemployment rate rises in the lead up to November, then Biden and Democrats will become disfavored regardless of Trump’s convictions.

We comment on whether Treasury market valuation is sufficiently attractive to get long bonds and consider some of the common arguments for why yields may yet make new highs.

Bank Credit Analyst

The uranium market is at a crossroads of economics and geopolitics. This report presents an overview of supply and demand factors that have led to the formation of the present supply deficit.

Special Report

In a guest research report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist, revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years.

The three major oil forecasters – IEA, EIA, and OPEC – are forecasting oil demand growth until 2025 to be broadly in line with its range over the past four decades. On a cyclical horizon, we give high odds that a recession will begin within the coming 6-12 months, disappointing these oil demand forecasts. On a strategic horizon, the IEA projects EVs will displace 9% of global oil demand by 2035, serving as a long-term demand headwind.

Bank Credit Analyst

In a guest research report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist, revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, we argue that global investors have been lulled into a false sense of security concerning the resiliency of the US economy. Tight monetary policy means that something must change for a recession to be avoided, and developed market rates cuts will likely be too modest and come too late to save the day. Nimble investors or those highly sensitive to tracking error should not be underweight stocks over the coming 3-6 months. Over a 6-12 month time horizon, we continue to recommend that investors remain underweight global equities versus US$-hedged long-maturity developed market government bonds. Section II is a guest report written by Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist. Martin revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years.

Bank Credit Analyst

In a guest research report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist, revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years.

Favor defensive sectors, low-beta assets, and long-duration bonds until the election uncertainty is lifted one way or another over the next five months.

The large buildup in Chinese households’ savings deposits is unlikely to fuel consumption. Poor outlooks on labor market conditions, income, and households’ unwillingness to borrow will hinder consumption through the rest of 2024.