Latest from BCA Research

Our last publication of the year lets the charts do the talking about why we think the consumer post-pandemic momentum is fading along with the labor market.

Special Report

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2025 discusses our expectations for interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and the 2025 strategic review.

Special Report

At the beginning of the 1970s, investors flocked to a select group of growth stocks loosely known as the Nifty Fifty. These companies’ earnings growth was considered so dependable that they were touted as “one-decision” stocks that a shareholder would never have to sell.

Bank Credit Analyst

Any additional fiscal tightening and further rate hikes might serve as a band-aid, but not a cure, to Brazilian markets. The country’s risk assets and the currency will continue to face headwinds from an impending recession, a strengthening USD, weak commodity prices, and worsening public debt dynamics. Investors should fade out any relief rallies in Brazilian markets for now.

As the US faces renewed government shutdown risk, I thought it was prudent to highlight two developments to GeoMacro clients.

Understanding the risks across Private Credit will enable investors to be offensive, not just with sizing but across their total portfolio. Senior Direct Lending is not risk-free, Private Credit is not systemic, and a liquidity crisis will not be born in this asset class.

A confluence of both supply and demand factors contributed to the natural gas rally over the past few months. This trend could continue for a while longer. However, cyclical and structural factors ultimately argue against a sustained increase in prices.