Paradoxically, raging optimism on the US economy is making a reacceleration in growth less likely in 2025. The reaction of the bond market has made the Fed rethink its cutting campaign. Markets are also constraining Trump’s agenda. US manufacturing will not recover with a surging dollar. Fears of in...
The latest version of the MacroQuant model sees the near-term risks to stocks as slightly tilted to the downside. It is neutral on bond duration and expects the US dollar to continue strengthening in the near term....
The latest version of the MacroQuant model sees the near-term risks to stocks as slightly tilted to the downside. It is neutral on bond duration and expects the US dollar to continue strengthening in the near term....
Our last publication of the year lets the charts do the talking about why we think the consumer post-pandemic momentum is fading along with the labor market....
At the beginning of the 1970s, investors flocked to a select group of growth stocks loosely known as the Nifty Fifty. These companies’ earnings growth was considered so dependable that they were touted as “one-decision” stocks that a shareholder would never have to sell....
Any additional fiscal tightening and further rate hikes might serve as a band-aid, but not a cure, to Brazilian markets. The country’s risk assets and the currency will continue to face headwinds from an impending recession, a strengthening USD, weak commodity prices, and worsening public debt dynam...
