Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…
Executive Summary Bond investors can’t seem to decide whether the US economy is in the midst of an inflationary boom or hurtling toward recession. Our sense is that, while US economic growth is clearly slowing, we don’t…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary A Tremendous Inflow Into US Government Bonds Multiple frameworks exist for managing currencies. These include forecasting growth…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Chinese Stocks Are Relatively Cheap The Chinese economy faces a trifecta of economic woes: 1) The threat of renewed Covid lockdowns; 2)…
Executive Summary Investors face a dilemma. The faster that inflation comes down, the better it will be for valuations via a stronger rally in the bond price. But if a collapse in inflation requires a sharp deceleration in growth, the…
Executive Summary Equities Are Closer To Capitulation The market appears to be moving away from concerns about inflation toward worries about slowing growth. The initial stage of the sell-off in risky assets, pricing in…
Executive Summary First IG, Then HY Corporate bonds are following the 2018 roadmap. Investment grade underperformed Treasuries as interest rate expectations rose from low levels, then junk joined the selloff once rate…