Technical

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A battle between tighter monetary conditions and the anticipation of fiscal largesse will be a dominant market theme this year. Our high-conviction equity allocation calls do not require making a major directional global…

Highlights The U.S. growth outlook has improved but markets already reflect this reality. The U.S. dollar is losing momentum despite healthy economic releases, highlighting the risk of a pullback. EUR and JPY should be the prime beneficiaries of a…

The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to capture very tactical…

Highlights BCA's U.S. Equity Strategy team would like to wish our clients a healthy, happy and prosperous New Year. Portfolio Strategy The growth vs. value style bias is due for a bounce, but beyond the near run, the outlook has become more balanced…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy If the Fed is about to begin interest rate re-normalization in earnest, then investors should heed the message from historic sector performance during tightening cycles. The tech sector remains vulnerable to tighter…

Highlights The recent tightening in U.S. monetary conditions increases the risk of a pause in the dollar bull market. The yen is in a strong cyclical bear market, but it is best placed to benefit from a dollar correction. The ECB just eased policy;…

Highlights Global Duration: Global bond yields, pushed higher since July on the back of improving global growth and rising inflation, have now overshot to the upside on excessive expectations of U.S. fiscal stimulus. Take profits on bearish bond positions…

Highlights Chart 1More Upside From Inflation bca.usbs_pas_2016_12_06_c1…

Highlights The rise in both bond yields and the U.S. dollar represents significant tightening in monetary conditions, which will be difficult for stock prices to digest. Technical indicators suggest that the rally could persist in the near term, but…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of November 30, 2016. The model further augmented the overweight to the U.S. despite the fact that the U.S. had already been the largest overweight, at…