Money/Credit/Debt
Germany’s IFO: “A Bottleneck Recession…
Cryptocurrencies Face Regulatory Headwinds…
Dear client, There will be no weekly bulletin next week. Instead, I will be hosting a webcast, with my colleague, Matt Gertken, titled “Currencies And Geopolitics: A Discussion.” I hope you will tune in so that we can have an interactive session. Also, we…
Highlights Global Inflation: Most central banks, led by the Fed, have stuck to the narrative that surging inflation is a temporary phenomenon that will not require an aggressive monetary policy response. However, global supply chain disruptions are…
EM Vulnerabilities: Taper Tantrum Lite…
Highlights We cannot predict how China will manage Evergrande precisely but we have a high conviction that it will do whatever it takes to prevent contagion across the property sector. However, China’s stimulus tools are losing their effectiveness over…
Good Economic News Is Bad News For Equities…
Highlights Germany’s election on September 26 is more of an opportunity than a risk for global investors. Coalition formation will prolong uncertainty but the key takeaway is that early or aggressive fiscal tightening is off the table for Germany … and…
Highlights A lot of pessimism is embedded in the Aussie dollar, making it a potent candidate for a powerful mean-reversion rally. The key catalyst will be a reversal in COVID-19 infection rates which are holding the Aussie economy hostage. Marginally,…
Highlights An Iran crisis is imminent. We still think a US-Iran détente is possible but our conviction is lower until Biden makes a successful show of force. Oil prices will be volatile. Fiscal drag is a risk to the cyclical global macro view. But…