The February Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates for the third month in a row, falling to 98.3 from 105.3. Consumers’ assessment of both their current situation and their expectations worsened, with the latter…
Our China strategists assessed the outlook for Chinese stocks in the aftermath of the DeepSeek hype. DeepSeek’s innovations will boost China’s productivity and technological advancement but are unlikely to create a strong…
Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.
In most developed economies, rising inflation expectations will lift them further above the 2 percent target, limiting the scope for further interest rate cuts. But in Japan, rising inflation expectations will lift them up to the BoJ…
This week we conduct a thorough audit of our open positions by revisiting the original basis and subsequent performance of all 13 cyclical recommendations. Following the review, we recommend closing 6 of the 13 positions.
Trump's presidential re-election makes US tariff rate hikes on Chinese exports an imminent threat. Beijing has made extensive efforts to derisk the domestic economy and diversify trade away from the US. However, China is no better…
We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI release, concluding that TIPS breakeven inflation rates have room to fall.
We spent last week visiting our clients in China. In this report, we share some of the key questions from the client meetings as well as our responses.
Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in…