Labor Market
Highlights Inflation is on everyone’s mind, … : Inflation has been a hot topic in our meetings with clients and in internal BCA discussions, but it has lately broken out among businesses and the general public. … but investors are mainly concerned with…
Dear Client, This week, the US Bond Strategy service is hosting its Quarterly Webcast (May 19 at 10:00 AM EDT, 3:00 PM BST, 4:00 PM CEST, 11:00 PM HKT). In addition, we are sending this Quarterly Chartpack that provides a recap of our key recommendations…
Highlights US growth has likely peaked. Economic momentum will slow over the coming quarters as the tailwind from stimulus fades and the vaccination campaign winds down. Historically, a slowdown in US growth, as proxied by a decline in the ISM…
Highlights Global stocks are very vulnerable to a correction. But cyclically the Fed is committed to an inflation overshoot and the global economy is recovering. China’s fiscal-and-credit impulse fell sharply, which leaves global cyclical stocks and…
Highlights Global Tapering: The Bank of England has joined the Bank of Canada as central banks tapering the pace of bond buying. Markets are now trying to sort out who is next and concluding that it will not be the Federal Reserve, with US employment…
Highlights Duration: Despite last month’s weak employment growth, we continue to expect the economy to reach maximum employment in time for the Fed to lift rates in 2022. Maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration. TIPS: Long-maturity TIPS breakeven…
Highlights The modern-day version of the Phillips curve posits that core inflation is determined by long-term inflation expectations and the amount of slack in the economy. In practice, using the Phillips curve to forecast inflation is complicated by…
Highlights Duration: Foreign inflows and dollar strength may give us a reason to turn bullish on US bonds at some point in the future, but not yet. For now, investor sentiment toward the dollar is more consistent with rising US bond yields than falling US…
Highlights After staging a tentative rebound in the first three months of the year, the US dollar has resumed its weakening trend. We expect the greenback to drift lower over the next 12 months, as global growth momentum rotates from the US to the rest…
Highlights The Greens are likely to win control of Germany’s government in the September 26 federal elections. At least they will be very influential in the new coalition. Germany has achieved may of its long-term geopolitical goals within the EU. There…