Highlights Chart 1How Long Until Full Employment? It’s official. The vaccination roll-out is successfully suppressing the spread of COVID-19 throughout the United States and the associated economic re-opening is leading…
Highlights Global manufacturing activity will soon peak due to growing costs and China’s policy tightening. This process will allow the dollar’s rebound to continue. EUR/USD’s correction will run further. This…
The BCA Research Global Asset Allocation (GAA) Forum will take place online on May 18th. We have put together a great lineup of speakers to discuss issues of importance to CIOs and asset allocators. These include the latest thinking…
Highlights Extremely accommodative fiscal policy and a rapid pace of vaccination puts the US on track to close its output gap by the end of the year. The situation is different in Europe, and the euro area economy will likely continue…
Highlights Global manufacturing activity will soon peak due to growing costs and China’s policy tightening. This process will allow the dollar’s rebound to continue. EUR/USD’s correction will run further. This…
Highlights Duration & The Fed: Unlike the bond market, the Fed is being intentionally cautious about how quickly it revises its interest rate expectations higher, focusing more on hard economic data than on surveys. We expect the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy China’s slowdown, a grinding higher US dollar, extremely overbought technicals and historically pricey valuations, all signal that the time is ripe to book profits and downgrade machinery to neutral…
Highlights The latest “dot plot” from the Fed reaffirmed the FOMC’s intention to keep rates near zero for at least the next two years, despite evidence that the US economy will recover from the pandemic much faster…
Highlights Duration: The Fed will revise up its interest rate forecasts at this week’s meeting, but the new forecasts will remain dovish compared to current market pricing. This could pressure bond yields down in the near-term.…