Labor Market

Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on Thursday, July 8 at 10:00…

Highlights The ongoing transition to a post-pandemic state and fiscal policy are either positive or net-neutral for risky asset prices. Fiscal thrust will turn to fiscal drag over the coming year, but the negative impact this will have on goods spending…

Highlights Economy – We agree with the Fed’s judgment that sky-high inflation readings will not last: Used-car prices won’t go up forever and neither will airline fares or hotel accommodations. Supply bottlenecks affecting the prices of a wide range of…

Dear Client, Next week, instead of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report from BCA Research’s MacroQuant tactical global asset allocation team. Titled “MacroQuant: A Quantitative Solution For Forecasting Macro-Driven Financial Trends…

Highlights China’s Communist Party has overcome a range of challenges over the past 100 years, performed especially well over the past 42 years, but the macro and geopolitical outlook is darkening. The “East Asian miracle” phase of Chinese growth has…

Highlights Economy – We think the current hiring logjam will prove to be temporary: Once schools fully re-open for in-person learning in August and September and enhanced unemployment benefits expire, restraints on labor supply should ease. Markets – We…

Highlights Duration: The Fed will ignore inflation for the time being and focus on its “maximum employment” target to decide when to lift rates off the zero bound. As a result, bond investors should also ignore inflation and focus on the employment data.…

Highlights Geopolitical risk is trickling back into financial markets. China’s fiscal-and-credit impulse collapsed again. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is ticking back up after the sharp drop from 2020. All of our proprietary GeoRisk…

Highlights Chart 1Tracking Nonfarm Payrolls Tracking Nonfarm Payrolls…