Highlights Portfolio Strategy A battle between tighter monetary conditions and the anticipation of fiscal largesse will be a dominant market theme this year. Our high-conviction equity allocation calls do not require making a major…
The S&P railroad index has vaulted higher, along with many other industrial groups, but it may be starting to overshoot fundamental improvement. Technical conditions are becoming overbought. The 52-week rate of change is nearing…
While we only recently went overweight in early-September, a much shorter time horizon than our desired cyclical calls, we are concerned that the index has front run an improvement in global trade that may be slow to materialize. Our…
The previous Insight showed that the industrial sector share price spike was in danger of a reversal. The S&P electrical equipment and components index looks equally vulnerable. Hefty short positions likely played a large role in…
Industrials have vaulted higher, in relative terms, on the back of hopes for rampant fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending as far as the eye can see, ignoring any negatives that may arise from protectionist policies and tighter…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The strong U.S. dollar is tightening global liquidity conditions, putting the post-election jump in stock prices at risk unless growth imminently accelerates. The spike in large cap industrial stocks…
Highlights The U.S. accounts for 18% of Chinese exports, while China accounts for only 8% of American overseas sales, which puts China at a disadvantage in a full-blown trade war. However, China has become an increasingly important…
Beyond early last century's military rearmament, the idea of militarily outspending opponents was very evident in the early-1960s when U.S. defense spending surged by 20% on a year-over-year basis. If our hypothesis that a global…