A high US tariff and the lingering uncertainties on the US-India trade deal will hurt investors sentiment. This and contracting corporate profits will push share prices lower. Stay underweight Indian stocks.
With inflation at a six-year low and restrictive policy weighing on growth, our EM strategists remain long Indian bonds and underweight equities. Headline CPI fell to 2.1% y/y, largely driven by lower food prices, bringing inflation…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
India's IT service exports have been booming and will continue to do so despite wider AI usage. Indian IT stocks, however, will not benefit from it as the expanding Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India compete with the nation’s…
Industrial activity in India is deteriorating, which will weigh on a stock market that’s priced for perfection. Indian industrial production slowed to 2.7% year-on-year in April compared to 3.9% in March. The economic…
Indian equities remain resilient despite rising India-Pakistan tensions, but BCA’s EM strategists stay underweight India while favoring local-currency bonds. The latest flare-up follows Indian retaliation to last month’s terrorist…
In its budget plans last week, the Indian fiscal authorities announced major tax cuts for households – the equivalent of about US$12 billion, 0.3% of GDP – to boost consumer spending. Soon thereafter, the central bank cut its policy rates…
Indian equities reached new highs in late September. Our Emerging Market strategists recommend dedicated EM investors use these gains as an opportunity to reduce Indian equity allocations from neutral to underweight. They expect both…
India’s credit impulse has turned negative. Government spending is contracting. The country’s growth will remain subdued; and both drivers of stock prices – profits and multiples – are headed lower at a time when equity valuations…
Our colleagues from the Emerging Markets Strategy team argue that investors should brace for a significant correction in Indian stocks in the coming months. They posit that the pillar of Indian corporations' sustained profit…