We have entered a new phase of the cycle, with central banks in most developed markets turning more hawkish (the Bank of England surprisingly hiking in December, and the Fed signaling three rate hikes for 2022). How much does…
Both the current and forward-looking components of the ifo Business Climate Index deteriorated in November, sending a negative signal about German sentiment. The headline series lost 1.2 points and fell to a 9-month low of 96.5…
Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP) formed a new government with the SPD’s Olaf Scholz replacing Angela Merkel as chancellor. The FDP – whose leader, Christian Lindner, will become…
US and Euro Area measures of consumer confidence are diverging. According to the Conference Board survey, US consumer sentiment declined for the third consecutive month to a seven-month low of 109.3 in September. The nearly six-…
The German IFO’s Business Climate Index softened for the third consecutive month in September, falling to 98.8 from 99.6. The weakness was led by the Current Assessment number which lost 1-point versus expectations of a minor…
Highlights Asian and European natural gas prices will remain well bid as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches. An upgraded probability of a second La Niña event this winter will keep gas buyers scouring markets for supplies…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy & Geopolitical Strategy services conclude that German stocks are a bargain. During the past 5 months, the German MSCI index has underperformed the rest of the Eurozone by 6.2…
Highlights An Iran crisis is imminent. We still think a US-Iran détente is possible but our conviction is lower until Biden makes a successful show of force. Oil prices will be volatile. Fiscal drag is a risk to the cyclical…
Germany's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have jumped ahead of Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc and are now leading in opinion polling for the upcoming September 26…